The Bureau of Meteorology has released its 2018 Winter Outlook, with warmer and drier than average conditions expected across the state.
We'll likely see below average rainfall records with warmer days this winter period.
The winter outlook follows one of Australia's warmest autumns on record and its second-warmest summer on record.
In Mandurah we're expecting an average of 422mm of rain across the three months of winter with temperatures expected to pass the average top of 18.4 degrees and lows of 9.7.
Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock said Western Australia is likely to have a mild weather with warmer than average days and nights.
Mandurah falls under the southwest land division, which experiences a warmer than usual autumn.
"Northern parts of the southwest land division are likely to be dry, but further south it's pretty close to even odds for a wetter or drier average season," Mr Pollock said.
"Daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer for winter."
Australia's main climate drivers, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are currently in a neutral phase, meaning there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions.
Mr Pollock said when ENSO and IOD are neutral, other climate drivers have a greater influence.
"We're expecting warmer than normal temperatures in the Tasman Sea this winter and associated lower-than-normal air pressure. This would mean a weakening of westerly winds over southern Australia that normally draw cold fronts up from the Southern Ocean," he said.
We'll be greeted by showers and a possible storm this morning and later this afternoon, but the beginning of winter is expected to be dry with a top of 17 degrees forecast for tomorrow on June 1.
Thunderstorms have developed ahead of the front. The front itself should move through the Perth Metro area between 11am & 2pm with a period of heavy showers & a possible squally thunderstorm. Wilyabrup recorded 32mm & Cowaramup 27mm in the 24 hrs to 9am. https://t.co/OmYKfhQEwF. pic.twitter.com/P8n52uXP5K
— Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia (@BOM_WA) May 31, 2018
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